John Herbst discusses U.S. leverage over Putin and Trump’s shifting Ukraine position

Recent statements coming out of Washington about prospects for “appeasing” Putin have dispelled any optimism about a quick end to the war the Kremlin launched against Ukraine.

On Nov. 12, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Russia’s goal remains full control of Donetsk Oblast — something Ukraine will never accept — making talk of peace negotiations meaningless at this stage. “They put forward a demand Ukraine cannot agree to, and that’s where we are right now,” he said.

Earlier in November, U.S. President Donald Trump admitted he still lacks a “last straw” that would definitively prove the Russian dictator is unwilling to end the war. “There is no last straw. Sometimes you just need to let the fight burn out. They’re fighting, and fighting hard,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One.

Rubio also said Washington has nearly exhausted its options for new sanctions against Russia. Trump, meanwhile, after imposing major restrictions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft on Oct. 22, shifted his attention to other foreign policy issues — and even allowed Hungary to continue receiving Russian energy for a year in circumvention of sanctions. The White House has also effectively declined, at least for now, to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles.

Has U.S. policy fundamentally changed? What are the chances Ukraine will receive Tomahawks? How does Trump approach his dealings with Putin, and is a possible end to the war in sight this year?

NV discussed these questions with John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine (2003–2006) and one of America’s most respected diplomats, who served 31 years in the U.S. Foreign Service.

Natalia Rop NV: Trump's position on ending the war in Ukraine is constantly changing. One day he says he wants to end it quickly; other times he says that the countries are at an impasse, and they must be allowed to fight. Why is his position so fluctuating? 

John Herbst: I'm not sure that his actual position fluctuates, but it is true that he has different, you might say, impulses or intentions, which are not fully consistent one with the other. I believe that his goal remains to achieve a durable peace, but it's also true that he's always had an interest or even a fascination with Vladimir Putin. And so, those two things are, you might say, not working in tandem.

And some days you hear his interest about improving relations with Russia, others you'll hear his interest in achieving a durable peace. But I think the more important of the two is his desire to achieve a durable peace, and he understands, he's learned this over the past nine or ten months, that Putin is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine. 

— But do you think that Trump is kind of ignoring Putin's unwillingness to end the war? In August, he rolled out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska, but peace wasn't reached.

— Correct. And that's why two weeks ago he put down major sanctions on Rossneft and Lukoil. And that's because he realized that Putin was not interested in peace.

So, this is where he seems to land after playing with the idea of maybe somehow relations with Moscow can be approved, even if Moscow does not make peace in Ukraine. But he seems to come back, ultimately, to this. 

— Recently, Trump said that he would end the war in Ukraine in a couple of months. Why do you think he still calls some deadlines, even though he has already broken all his promises? 

— Well, I think he doesn't establish deadlines because he's realized that deadlines are not easy to achieve. Given the fact that, as Trump said several times, including recently, he thinks Putin does not want peace. Putin wants to take more of Ukraine. 

— I mean this previous statement at the beginning of his presidency about ending the war in 24 hours, and similar to this. 

— Correct. Then he revised that, I don't know, within a month of taking office and began to talk about three months. Obviously, three months did not do it. I don't think he can end the war on you. If he did everything that I would recommend, which would mean massive new weapons shipments to Ukraine, including tomahawks, including restoring American aid, which is majority of the American people support, restoring American aid, in fact, even increasing American aid. If he did all those things, and including major new sanctions on Russia, it would still take many months, because Putin needs to be persuaded. He cannot outweigh and tough out Western leaders. 

— Talking about Tomahawk, Trump has recently stated that he is not currently considering transferring it to Ukraine. But Ukrainian side stated that discussions are ongoing. How do you assess the chances that the sale of these missiles will be approved?

—  I suspect it will happen, but I don't know if it will happen in six weeks or a year and a half. Tomahawks were not even in the discussion until about six or eight weeks ago, when Trump told Zelensky maybe this will happen. And of course, there were people in the Trump administration, I'm not saying Trump himself, who spoke about Russian nuclear capability with the same fear that people in the Biden administration, including President Biden, spoke about it.

Trump never said that, thank goodness. And so Tomahawks for those people were seen as much to quote-unquote escalatory. But Trump, and even Vice President Vance, said publicly in at least early October, if not even a little bit before that, that maybe Tomahawks was necessary.

But then more recently, Trump said he's not going to send Tomahawks now. Now. That doesn't mean he won't send them in the future.

And I suspect because Putin is not willing to make peace, that Trump will eventually make the decision to send Tomahawks. 

But having said that, Tomahawks are not a panacea. They would help Ukraine in this war, would make it more painful for Russia, but by themselves would not help Ukraine to defeat Russia.

— Trump is also making some attempts to involve China in resolving the war in Ukraine. Do you think that he will succeed in this?

—  I believe there were newspaper reports that the Chinese foreign minister told the EU chief diplomat that China has interest in Russia winning this war. That's been an assessment all along. But to have the Chinese minister say that publicly is very interesting.

— And how can events develop after this statement?

—  Well, I think that Trump is trying to reach an improved trading relationship with China, and that's his most important goal. And while he understands that China is helping Russia, I don't know if he's willing to use America's great power and influence.

To persuade China to improve its policy towards the war on Ukraine. It would be useful if he did, but I'm not certain that's what he will do. 

— If you try to describe the current relations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President, how would you describe them? And have they improved significantly since that Oval Office scandal? 

— There's no doubt that they've improved significantly. And I always felt right after that scandal, right after the impolite treatment that Zelensky received in the Oval Office, that there would have to be some form of rapprochement. Because Trump again said he could achieve a peace, he could achieve a durable peace. And he's criticized for letting Putin take advantage of him. So if he wants to maintain his reputation as a strong leader, he has to make it difficult for Putin to deny Trump a peace in Ukraine. And I think that's why you had the major sanctions on Rosneft and Lugoil a couple of weeks ago. And I think that's why you'll see more American measures making it unpleasant for the Kremlin to continue its aggression in Ukraine.

— And what steps could it be? 

— Well, Tomahawks for one or more weapons. Two would be additional sanctions and going after the ghost fleet of oil tankers in a very serious methodical way. Three could be more in the weapons category, anti-aircraft missiles, to demonstrate to Putin that America and America's allies and partners will not let him win in Ukraine. That's what has to happen. 

Putin needs to see six, eight, 12 months or more of determined American and Western policy. Because if American policy is sufficiently strong, and our partners' policies and allies' policies are sufficiently strong, there's no way in the world Putin could take any more Ukrainian territory.

— There was a discussion about Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's bill for a 500% tariff against third countries that buy energy from Russia. What is happening with this bill now?

— It's stuck. It's pretty simple. This concept of major new sanctions, whether it's tariffs or something else, is a very good concept. Graham understands how important it is for the United States, for American interests, that Putin loses war on Ukraine. But Graham and by and large Republicans in the Senate who understand how important, again, for American interests, Putin's defeat in Ukraine is, they're not going to cross the president. So unless the president were to okay new legislation, it's not going to happen. And that's why I say it's held up, suspended, so to speak. 

— Do you think Trump might be a bit of afraid of Putin?

—  I don't think so, because, you know, first Medvedev [former Russian President] in the summer, and then you might say Putin very recently, took steps or made statements suggesting they could use nuclear weapons against the West, including the United States.

And we know that in the first instance over the summer, Trump ordered moving American nuclear submarines closer to Russia. And a few weeks ago, after Putin talked about this great new missile, Trump said, we need to resume nuclear testing. So Biden was sadly intimidated by Putin's nuclear threats. Biden's team was intimidated by Putin's nuclear threats. I think there are some advisors in Trump world who've been intimidated by Putin's nuclear threats, but not Trump himself. 

— How do you think Ukraine should behave today in this uncertain situation with the US and the war itself? 

— I think Zelensky has done a very good job dealing with the overall difficult circumstances he faces. And, you know, he recovered nicely from that meeting in the Oval Office at the end of February. And we all saw since then, I don't know, five, six, seven times Trump put out a specific proposal for a ceasefire or to lead to peace in Ukraine. Zelensky managed to accept everyone while defending Ukrainian interests.

And Putin managed to not say yes to any of them, which led to the sanctions on Lukoil Rosneft. And in the future could lead to additional strong American steps to make the Kremlin pay a price for its aggression in Ukraine.

—  What are your estimations: are there any chances that the peace deal might be reached by the end of the year?

– No. Look, Putin thinks he's gotten away with saying no. Although he's a little bit nervous right now. You know, when the sanctions came down on Rosneft and Lukoil, he dispatched Kamil Dimitrov to Washington at a very silly time because all the senior leaders were gone. They were on the East Asian trip of President Trump.

But that showed how nervous he was. 

But still, all right, those sanctions were placed on Lukoil and Rosneft. But then President Trump said something which sounds a little bit like President Biden. He said, well, I want a calibrated approach to sanctions. In other words, not too much too soon. That's how the Biden administration proceeded, not to the advantage of the United States. It's not going to work now. Putin needs to see substantial step and step and step cutting against his interests if he's going to actually stop his war on Ukraine and Ukrainian people. 

— On the one hand, yes, on the other hand, he has the support of China and other third countries. And it's easier for him to keep it going. 

— Well, without their help, he'd be in much more difficult circumstances. But it's also true that even with their help, he's not prospering. Right?  How long have the Russians been saying they're going to take Pokrovsk and that's still under Ukrainian control? The Russian offensive is not doing very well. And Ukraine has demonstrated not just remarkable courage, but remarkable ingenuity, creativeness, and creativity in responding to the Kremlin aggression. And so Putin's prospects are not great. I can tell you that.