Exclusive: Mark Rutte on NATO, Trump, and Ukraine’s place in Europe’s security future

Rop: At the Washington Summit, it was said that Ukraine's path to NATO is irreversible. But U.S. President Donald Trump says that our country will never become a NATO member. Who should we believe? What are Ukraine's prospects for NATO?

Rutte: Well, the Washington Summit had a clear outcome, and that's exactly the sentence you just repeated. So that's NATO policy.
However, it has never been promised to Ukraine that NATO membership will be part of a peace deal or a ceasefire. And sometimes what I'm hearing is that the Americans saying we do not think that as part of a ceasefire or a peace deal there will be NATO membership, that goes against the language from the Washington Summit. And there I would not agree.
I think that's very much in line with the language of the Washington Summit. These are two separate things, a peace deal and the long-term prospect.

Rop: Do you believe Ukraine’s membership in NATO is possible during Trump’s presidency? It seems that you have good relations with him and may understand his way of thinking.

Rutte: Well, let's not interpret what he was saying. We have that language from the Washington Summit longer term. And whenever that exactly is, we do not know. There is the irreversible path towards NATO.
And in the meantime, with American help, we are really working together to take the command in Wiesbaden, from which all the support gets into Ukraine. And we organize the training. Look at JTAC in Poland, which is a joint Ukraine-NATO organization starting only three or four weeks ago, which is capturing all the lessons.
And as we speak, we are thinking of what is the best way to help Ukraine to become even more interoperable with NATO, to build up its own armed forces, post a hopeful moment of a peace deal or a ceasefire. And let's hope we can get there. So on all these issues, we are really working closely together.

Rop: Today, Ukraine has a million-strong army, uses modern drones in combat, and has extensive combat experience. Do you agree with the view that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be superior to the armies of all European NATO members in terms of readiness to wage war? Can we say that Ukraine is able to give NATO even more than it might receive in return?

Rutte: Well, of course, the Ukrainian armed forces are impressive. And what you have done since the 23rd, 24th of February 2022, fighting back the full Russian onslaught and the Russian thinking they would get to Kyiv in two weeks and having organised the victory parade in Moscow early March 2022… And look where we are here now. So many people died, yes, but the Russian success rate is very limited. And this is thanks to the Ukrainian armed forces and all the support you got from outside. But it was the Ukrainian armed forces who had to do this. Let's not try to say they are better or worse or not as good as the NATO forces.
I think there is a reason why we can learn from each other. Because you are battle-hardened. And you didn't ask for this. But because of Russia, you had to. And that provides lessons and insights which, for example, through this Polish organisation we have now, the JTAC, this Joint Ukraine-NATO organisation, we can capture those lessons and also apply them in NATO territory and, of course, in Ukraine going forward.

Rop: How close is Ukraine’s army to NATO standards, in your view?

Rutte: Well, I'm not myself a military guy, so I could not tell you exactly. What I know is that we work very closely together, the military from NATO and Ukraine, to get you up to standard, to make sure that you have all the right trainings in place, so NATO is not part of the conflict. But we try to help, of course, by helping to supply the defence products and industrial support, the defence support generally, but also training and getting you up to standard.

Rop: What are NATO’s red lines in potential negotiations to end the war between Ukraine and Russia? Could NATO be part of a peacekeeping mission, as the UK and France have proposed with other EU partners?

Rutte: On the first question, we are not part as NATO of those negotiations. They are really driven by the US, together with Ukraine and the Russians. I'm glad that the US has broken the deadlock, that these talks are now ongoing. They go slow, we know, not because of Ukraine, but because of the Russians. The ball is clearly in Russia's court now, in Russia's corner.
But I think, so for NATO, we do not have our own red lines, because we are not part of that. But, of course, generally speaking, we want Ukraine to be a proud sovereign nation going forward. That's what we all want. It has to be a just and lasting peace. Putin should never try this again.
You live in Kiev, I want you to live in safety. And not worry at night whether there might be a drone attack on your house.

Rop: And what about peacekeepers in Ukraine?

Rutte: Yes, on the second question, when we get to a peace deal or a ceasefire, we need to look what is the best way to support Ukraine from not being attacked again by the Russians.
And the first layer of that is making sure that the Ukrainian armed forces themselves are in the best possible position after a ceasefire slash a peace deal. Then we have the French and the Brits looking into ways with the Coalition of the Willing to supply security guarantees. We have proposals from the Italians going into a somewhat different direction, but with the same aim.
I think it is best to wait for the moment when the peace is struck. In the meantime, keep on thinking and developing all these various ideas, so that you stand ready when the peace deal is struck or the ceasefire is there, that you can then apply it.

Rop: Do you already have an idea of what NATO’s participation might look like in such a peacekeeping mission?

Rutte: Well, that's difficult, because probably it will not be NATO as such. That's not very likely. But it could be NATO allies being involved. And that always means that it has an impact on NATO territory. It might have an impact on the defense of NATO territory also going forward.
So in that sense, you have to coordinate, liaise. And this is with the Italian proposals, with the British-French ideas, with some of the ideas Chancellor Schultz has put forward. So on all these issues.
And then I think the best moment to judge what is the best approach is when we know what the peace deal looks like.

Rop: Do you mean Italy’s proposal by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to extend NATO’s Article 5 protections to Ukraine without formal membership?

Rutte: Yes.

Rop: What’s your view? Is it possible?

Rutte: Well, again, I don't want to – we don't have the luxury to shoot out of the water any idea. We need all these ideas on the table and then really be very clear on the assessment when there is a peace deal, what is the best way forward.

Rop: Do you believe a European peacekeeping mission could deter Russia? Would it really work?

Rutte: Well, that depends exactly, of course, on the makeup of that, how many people are there, what is the exact extent of that particular mission. So that's one of the possibilities, one of the options.
Building, of course, on the first layer, which has to be Ukrainian Armed Forces being the first line of defence in the deterrence. Аnd then looking into what do you need to have more to make sure that the over-aiming goal we all have, which is for the peace deal to be lasting, for the Russians never to do this again.
And then, again, you get into the French-British ideas and what the Italians have put forward, the Germans, there are other ideas and we have to look for the most practical solution.

Rop: Some say a smaller NATO is forming around Ukraine — Baltic and Northern European nations, a “coalition of the willing” more determined to counter Russia. Combined with Trump’s rhetoric, does this mean NATO as we know it is ending?

Rutte: No, to the contrary we heard Marco Rubio saying yesterday if NATO was not there we would invent it. I think the US is totally committed to NATO. The irritant they have with European and Canadian allies is that we are not spending enough and in the meantime we are spending so much more.
We have the biggest surge now in spending on the European side of NATO since the Cold War, since the 1980s. And now we have to make sure that we keep on going when it comes to ramping up spending and that we spend it in the right way. That has to do with the defence industrial base getting more weapons produced. And there Ukraine is of course again important because you have a huge defence industrial base underutilised because you need money for at least I think 40-50% of the defence industrial base to be tapped into. And there are many initiatives from Lithuania and from Denmark.
My understanding is that the Norwegians are also willing to pay into this to make sure you develop that.

Rop: You mentioned €20 billion in support pledged to Ukraine by NATO allies. Is that enough for Ukraine to stay in the fight?

Rutte: Well what I wanted to make clear is that where last year for the whole year there was a pledge of 40 billion and we ended up at 50 billion from which 60% was supplied by the Europeans and Canada. So the America's NATO allies.
That now in the first three months we have brought together about 20 billion euro so over 20 billion US dollars in three months. And last year it was 50 billion over the whole year.
So it shows you that we are accelerating and that is important. And there is still a huge supply line going into Ukraine from Europe with defence gear from the US, from European allies, from others. But 99% is coming from NATO allies into Ukraine to make sure you can stay in the fight and will be in the best possible position to negotiate.

Rop: Do you believe the war could end this year?

Rutte: I don't want to predict anything on this because I can't. I would really hope so. I wish for you and for all of us for this war to end tomorrow. It can end tomorrow if the Russians stop and withdraw. That's the easiest outcome. They won't probably. But whether we can end the war this year I don't want to predict.