Russian forces capture less land than Ukraine liberates in August — ISW
Russian war2 September, 12:02 PM
ISW analysts emphasized that Russian territorial advances "remain slow and limited."
Drawing on geolocated evidence, ISW calculated that Russian troops captured or established stable control over approximately 90.35 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in August 2026, averaging 2.91 square kilometers per day. Factoring in confirmed Russian infiltrations, occupation forces advanced into or infiltrated roughly 123.53 square kilometers, reflecting an average advance rate of 3.98 square kilometers per day.
Russia’s primary territorial advances during August 2026 occurred along the Donetsk Oblast fortress belt. Even there, Russian units achieved only marginal tactical gains and remain unable to complete the seizure of Kostyantynivka, ISW underscored. Russian forces have advanced into, infiltrated, or established a presence across 72.23% of Kostyantynivka's municipal boundaries, failing to fully capture the city despite months of intensified urban combat and infiltration efforts.
In August 2026, Russian forces seized only a fraction of what they took over the corresponding period in 2025, even when including contested infiltrations. In August 2025, the Russian army seized 505.55 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, underscoring how Russian advance rates continue to slow down across Ukraine.
Ukrainian Defense Forces sustained counteroffensive operations throughout August, notably along the Lyman and Oleksandrivka axes. Geolocation verified by ISW indicated that Ukrainian forces liberated at least 129.81 square kilometers in August 2026 — exceeding Russia's 123.53 square kilometers of seized and infiltrated terrain combined. Analysts noted this figure represents a conservative estimate, as ISW's methodology tends to undercount the full scope of Ukrainian advances in the ongoing Lyman counteroffensive, with the total scale likely to become fully documented in autumn 2026.
Russian forces continued to suffer catastrophic personnel attrition in August 2026, paying an escalating price for minimal territorial footprint, ISW emphasized.
On Sept. 1, AFU General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered 42,020 personnel casualties throughout August 2026 — the second consecutive month in which Russian monthly losses surpassed 40,000 troops. Throughout August 2026, Russian forces lost an average of 340 soldiers for every square kilometer seized or infiltrated, or 465 soldiers per square kilometer of confirmed seized terrain excluding infiltration corridors.
It remains uncertain how long Russian forces can maintain this operational tempo under such attrition rates without introducing new forms of domestic mobilization, ISW concluded.