This forecast says Ukraine will need at least a year and a half to eliminate the electricity deficit after the Russian strikes, providing that no new attacks take place.
"Russia shut down more than 9 GW of electricity generation capacity Ukraine during the spring and summer of 2024, losses suffered by the energy system exceeded $1 billion," the memorandum said.
“Energy deficits are expected to persist through 2024 and 2025. According to recent market estimates, including [IMF] staff estimates, the energy deficit will average approximately 10% in 2024, gradually decrease through 2025, and will be eliminated in early 2026.”
Serious electricity shortage - up to 30% - may be witnessed in peak hours in 2024. Further Russian attacks might destabilize the energy system even more.
The situation in the Ukrainian energy system is deteriorating. The outage schedule will be slightly longer from 11:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m. than during the rest of the day, and will continue until the end of July, Ukrenergo’s Chair Volodymyr Kudrytskyi said.
If at the beginning of the shutdown schedules, high-rise buildings located on the same lines as hospitals and other critical facilities were not shut down, then as of June 18, the number of "untouchable" Kyiv buildings has decreased by exactly three times. To compare: there were 1,497 houses, constituting 12% of the total number in October 2022. There are only 510 of them (4%) as of now.
It will take about two years to restore Ukraine's energy system, Ukrainians will face inevitable blackouts in the next two winters, Kudrytskyi said.
"Ukraine will be able to restore only 200-250 MW by winter, or 7% of electricity generation capacity while 3.5 GW is required."
Power outages and disruption of proper water supply could trigger an outbreak of cholera and other diseases in Ukraine, Ukrainian Health Minister, Viktor Lyashko, said.
The Trypillia TPP in Kyiv Oblast was destroyed in an April 11 Russian attack, resulting in a 100% loss of Centrenergo’s generation.
DniproHES lost both power plants in March 2024. The dam survived, but the equipment was destroyed, and the restoration of the Dnipro HPP will take years.
The TPP-5 in Kharkiv was decimated. Its restoration is equivalent to building a new plant, which will also take years.
Kharkiv Oblast’s Zmiivska TPP (Centrenergo) was destroyed.
DTEK Group reported an 80% loss in generation.
All units of the Burshtyn and Ladyzhyn TPPs were damaged.
A gas storage facility in western Ukraine also suffered damage.
Two HPPs were decommissioned as of May 9.
Controlled emergency power outages were introduced in all of Ukraine’s oblasts from May 14.
All large thermal and hydropower plants in Ukraine were damaged due to Russian shelling, Ukrenergo said on May 20.
Russia attacked the energy system in Ukraine's five oblasts on the night of June 1. DTEK reported serious damage to two of its TPPs. This was the sixth attack on Ukraine's power system since March 2024.
Russia struck Ukraine's energy sector on the night of June 20, damaging energy facilities in four oblasts. A critical infrastructure object was hit in Vinnytsia Oblast. Russia also attacked the DTEK thermal power plant. The equipment is seriously damaged.