Russian Zapad-2025 drills in Belarus to involve 100,000-150,000 troops, Latvian general says
Russia’s Zapad-2025 military exercises in Belarus, scheduled for September 2025, could involve 100,000 to 150,000 troops, far exceeding Russia’s reported figures, Latvian Major General Andis Dilāns told Radio NV on June 9.
“They always use false numbers, claiming, for example, 12,000 or 13,000 participants, the maximum allowed under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, but since Russia is no longer a party to it, they can use any numbers,” Dilāns said. “Latvia’s assessment is that there will be 100,000 to 150,000 troops.”
The troop count also depends on the war in Ukraine.
“If there is some kind of ceasefire, they can move forces from the front in Ukraine to Belarus and train conscripts, because it is very likely that both conscripts and reservists will participate in the exercises,” he added.
“Why do I mention reservists, because last year the conscription of reservists in Russia to reinforce the troops at the front in Ukraine failed. So now it can work.”
The former Latvian military representative to the EU and NATO described the exercises as a potential cover for Russian conscription.
On April 9, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi suggested Zapad-2025 could be a pretext for preparing a new offensive against Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on March 5, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to draw Belarus deeper into the war against Ukraine.
At the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, Zelenskyy claimed Russia plans to deploy troops to Belarus under the guise of exercises in the summer, possibly targeting NATO countries.
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