ISW maps Kursk raid, labels it an offensive operation
Ukrainian forces advanced 10 kilometers into Russia’s Kursk
Oblast in a mechanized offensive, according to an Aug. 7 report
by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Footage with confirmed geolocation, published on Aug. 6 and
7, shows armored vehicles, believed to be Ukrainian, advancing about 10
kilometers from the international border along the 38K-030 road. The scale and
location of the breakthrough indicate that Ukrainian forces have overcome at
least two Russian defense lines and a stronghold.
ISW also cited a “Russian insider source” [VChK-OGPU
Telegram channel] claiming that Ukrainian forces had captured 45 square
kilometers of territory in Kursk Oblast since the start of the operation on
Aug. 6. Other Russian sources reported the seizure of a total of 11
settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 km north of the border in Sumy
Oblast), Daryino (3 km north of the border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the
Nikolaevo-Daryino-Daryino section), with Ukrainian forces allegedly conducting
operations within Lyubimovka (8 km north of the Ukraine-Russia border).
The ISW provided a map of the situation in Kursk Oblast,
showing the advances made by Ukrainian forces.
Russian sources claim that Ukrainian troops are trying to
advance along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenevo highway. A well-known and
Kremlin-linked “milblogger” reported that as of 6 p.m. on Aug. 7, Ukrainian
forces had advanced northwest and southeast along the highway and were fighting
on the outskirts of Korenevo and Sudzha. Several Russian sources reported the
alleged seizure of the Sudzha road crossing and the Sudzha gas distribution
station.
Geolocated imagery from Aug. 7 indicated that Ukrainian
troops had captured more than 40 Russian prisoners of war at the Sudzha checkpoint.
The Russian service of Radio Liberty published satellite images showing
extensive damage to buildings at the Sudzha checkpoint.
There are also reports of significant losses of Chechen
Akhmat units near Sudzha in the Korenovo district of Kursk Oblast on Aug. 7.
ISW analysts noted the “contradictory” reaction of the
Kremlin to the offensive in Kursk Oblast. According to their observations,
Russian officials are trying to balance between presenting the effort as a
visible escalation on the part of Ukraine and avoiding exaggerating its
potential consequences to prevent domestic discontent.
The ISW suggests that the Kremlin is likely seeking to
balance its messages for two contradictory purposes: to discredit Ukraine
internationally for conducting the attack on Russian territory and to avoid
stoking domestic panic about the scale, consequences, and potential outcomes of
the “Ukrainian operation,” which the ISW currently calls a “mechanized assault.”
However, the Institute for the Study of War warns that the Kremlin risks
discrediting itself among certain pro-war communities by dismissing the
significance of the attack and calling it only a “provocation,” as Vladimir
Putin did.
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