Russia’s Black Sea Kalibr missile salvo capacity has fallen fourfold
Read NV on Google
Damaged Russian Project 21631 Buyan-M missile corvette (Photo: Одесский курьер / Defense Express)
Russia has an estimated three to four combat-capable Kalibr cruise missile carriers left in the Black Sea after Ukraine’s Sept. 9 strike on Novorossiysk damaged three more ships, Defense Express reported on Sept. 11.
According to analysts, the total potential salvo of Russian Kalibr cruise missiles from vessels in the Black Sea has fallen fourfold compared with 2022, to about 16-24 missiles.
At the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the following Russian ships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet were deployed in the Black and Azov seas:
Two Project 11356R Burevestnik-class frigates, Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, carrying eight missiles each;
Three Project 21631 Buyan-M-class small missile ships, Vyshny Volochyok, Ingushetiya and Grayvoron, carrying eight missiles each;
Two Project 22800 Karakurt-class small missile ships, Tsiklon and Askold, both of which were still under construction in 2022, carrying eight missiles each;
Four Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class diesel-electric submarines, Rostov-on-Don, Stary Oskol, Veliky Novgorod and Kolpino, carrying four missiles each;
One Project 877V Paltus-class diesel-electric submarine, Alrosa, carrying four missiles, although its ability to launch them was uncertain.
Another Buyan-M-class ship, Veliky Ustyug, was in the Sea of Azov. The total potential salvo in 2022 was therefore 76-80 Kalibr cruise missiles, according to Defense Express.
About four or five undamaged Russian Kalibr cruise missile carriers are now believed to remain in the Black and Azov seas:
One or two Project 21631 Buyan-M-class small missile ships, although it is unclear which ones;
Two Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class diesel-electric submarines, Stary Oskol and Veliky Novgorod;
One Project 877V Paltus-class diesel-electric submarine, Alrosa, which is in poor technical condition, making its participation in the war against Ukraine questionable.
"Thus, as of now, there should effectively be only three or four combat-capable carriers of 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles in the Black Sea, with a total potential salvo of just 16-24 cruise missiles, about four times fewer than in 2022," the analysts wrote.
Defense Express did not rule out the possibility that Russia could transfer additional missile carriers to the Black Sea via the Don River and the Volga-Don Canal. However, the Kalibr's range of 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) allows Russian forces to strike Ukraine directly from the Caspian Sea, where Ukrainian forces have already targeted Russian facilities.
On Sept. 9, Ukrainian forces attacked Novorossiysk and Anapa in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine's General Staff said Kalibr missile carriers were hit at the Russian port.
On Sept. 10, OSINT analysts reported that three vessels in Novorossiysk were damaged in a missile strike: a Project 21631 Buyan-M-class ship capable of carrying Kalibr and Oniks cruise missiles, the missile-carrying frigate Admiral Essen and the frigate Admiral Makarov.
The military war may be swinging in our favor, but the information war continues.
Just as an army needs soldiers, so does a free society need its journalists to ensure that people have access to honest, trustworthy voices to understand the world around them.
For the past five years, The New Voice of Ukraine has been working tirelessly to push back against Russian narratives and defend democracy. But we cannot do it alone.
Please consider supporting us on Patreon for just $5 a month – your donation does directly to supporting journalists and ensuring that this front of the infowar says solid and defended.
Thank you.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Google News
