Russian fleet retreating from Crimea, Ukraine advancing on two fronts — ISW
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The transfer of at least 10 Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) ships from Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk is likely a result of recent Ukrainian strikes on fleet vessels in the port of Sevastopol, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report on Oct. 4.
The Russian military recently transferred several BSF vessels from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, in south-western Russia — likely in an effort to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in Crimea.
Satellite imagery published on Oct. 1 and Oct. 3 shows that Russian forces transferred at least 10 vessels from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. The satellite imagery reportedly shows that Russian forces recently moved the Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen frigates, three diesel submarines, five landing ships, and several small missile ships.
Meanwhile, satellite imagery taken on Oct. 2 shows four Russian landing ships and one Kilo-class submarine remaining in Sevastopol. The imagery also shows a Project 22160 patrol ship reportedly for the first time in the port of Feodosia in eastern Crimea, suggesting that Russian forces may be moving BSF elements away from Sevastopol to bases further in the Russian rear.
A Russian think tank, the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, claimed on Oct. 3 that the BSF vessels’ movements from occupied Sevastopol to Novorossiysk were routine, however. Russian forces may be temporarily moving some vessels to Novorossiysk following multiple strikes on BSF assets in and near Sevastopol, but Sevastopol’s port, which remains the BSF’s base, will likely remain in use, the think tank said.
On the ground, Ukrainian forces are continuing offensive operations near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine, and in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast in the south, with small advances reported on Oct. 4.
Ukrainian forces are continuing ground attacks towards the rail line between Klishchiyivka (7 kilometers southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriyivka (10 kilometers southwest of Bakhmut), and the Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success near these settlements.
Geolocated footage published on Oct. 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces also made small advances east of Novoprokopivka (5 kilometers southeast of Robotyne) in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast, and the Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success west of Robotyne. Some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced up to a Russian trench line on the Robotyne-Kopani line (5 kilometers northwest of Robotyne).
Autumn and winter weather conditions are expected to slow but not stop Ukrainian counter-offensive operations. U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on Oct. 3 that it will be another six to eight weeks before weather impacts both Ukrainian and Russian operations.
ISW has previously observed that seasonal heavy rain and resulting mud in the autumn will slow ground movements on both sides, and that the autumn rain and mud are usually less intense than spring conditions. Hardening ground during the winter freeze will likely enable the tempo of combat operations to increase, however, and Ukrainian officials have expressed their intent to continue counter-offensive operations into late 2023 and exploit cold weather conditions.
The Kremlin is likely intensifying its use of tools of digital authoritarianism to increase domestic repression and tighten control of the information space, ISW also said in its latest report. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on Oct. 4 that the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office requested that Russian social media platform VKontakte (VK) begin blocking posts from relatives of mobilized servicemen calling for their loved ones to return home.
Vazhnye Istorii noted that VK is hiding posts with several hashtags pertaining to the treatment or return of mobilized servicemen and that several posts in group chats have reportedly disappeared. Some Russian opposition outlets notably suggested that this apparent expansion of digital authoritarianism may be increasingly based on the restrictive Chinese model.
One Russian opposition source, later amplified by an insider source, claimed that the Russian State Social University is developing and testing a social rating system for Russians based on the Chinese model, and that the intended generated social scores will link to personal data that government entities and banks will have access to.
ISW has recently reported on previous instances of the Kremlin’s efforts to expand digital authoritarianism to surveil the Russian information space, likely to consolidate power and increase information space oversight prior to the 2024 presidential elections.
Russian sources continue to speculate about the current role of former Aerospace Forces (VKS) Commander and Wagner Group — affiliate Army General Sergei Surovikin after the Wagner rebellion, further highlighting his continued relevance in the Russian information space.
Some Russian sources amplified footage on Oct. 3 and 4 allegedly of Surovikin and his family outside a church near Moscow on Oct. 3. This speculation comes after prior speculation of Surovikin allegedly appearing in various African countries on behalf of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Russian news outlet Novye Izvestia claimed that Surovikin denied to comment to journalists who approached him near the church.
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