On Russia’s new ‘volunteer battalions’
Will mobilization processes intensify against the background of the aggressor's steps to form “volunteer battalions?”
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin met with the former commander of the Wagner PMC, Andrei Troshev, whom he instructed to form "volunteer units." How will the draft affect the mobilization process in Russia? Conscription is ongoing in Russia. For Russians, this is an additional so-called hidden resource of mobilization. What does this mean? On the eve of the election campaign, Putin will unlikely agree to mass mobilization, but conscripts will remain a resource.
Firstly, the Russians have recently shortened the period after which a conscript can sign a contract with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Conscripts are an essential resource for them. A conscript called up for military service is entitled to sign a contract within a month. The Russians have been increasing this component - the percentage of conscripts who sign a contract in the Armed Forces.
Some of them are simply persuaded, convinced, and sometimes even forced. This is a fairly common practice. When a person commits a crime, they are faced with a choice: jail or a contract. Many people choose the latter.
They also recruit soldiers because the monetary reward for contract service, including so-called combat service, is constantly increasing. That's why most people, especially those from depressed regions, agree with it.
Our general mobilization is ongoing all the time
For them, this is a hidden resource. This does not mean that everyone called up for military service will necessarily end up at the front. After the first months of the war, when they used a relatively large number of conscripts, and this caused some tension in society, they abandoned this practice. Most of the conscripts do end up in the armed forces soon after, signing a contract. Most of them are sent to Ukraine to participate in combat operations. Now, this replenishment at the expense of conscripts is one of the areas of so-called hidden mobilization.
Secondly, they put pressure on enterprises now suffering from a labor shortage. Large enterprises are being put under conditions: you will be protected, and in return, you have to recruit soldiers for the Armed Forces on your own. That is why they are also involved in this campaign. They recruit themselves, working with the population, partially equipping them with their own money.
The third point is prisoners. At the beginning of the aggression, this was the responsibility of the Wagner PMC. Now, it has been transferred to the Ministry of Defense. They use prisoners and the so-called 500th, i.e., deserters, to form assault units - the so-called Z-companies, which they use to fill in the gaps after losses at the front.
Now to Ukraine. Let me remind you that our general mobilization has continued. It is ongoing. There are so-called mobilization plans. They either increase or decrease. For example, immediately after the invasion, the mobilization plans were increased dramatically because the Defense Forces needed a large number of soldiers. The second stage, when these plans were significantly increased for the TCC, for the former military enlistment offices, was in the fall of last year and spring of this year, when there was a need to form a large number of brigades, the so-called reserve brigades, which were to participate in the offensive, primarily in the south. Accordingly, these plans increased significantly. Then they stopped.
Now there is information that these plans will be significantly turned up again. Will this happen or not? The General Staff and the Commander-in-Chief first know the answer to this. Why? Because they proceed from their own needs. The General Staff, per the law, forms these needs.
This need is formed based on several factors. First, if there is a real need to form a large number of new military units, it is clear that these plans will increase. Second, there are losses - wounded and dead. If the percentage of these losses is high and there is a need not just for ongoing reconstruction, which is ongoing, but for substantial reconstruction of those brigades that, for example, have suffered the most losses, then these plans will also increase.
Does the General Staff have such plans? You have to ask the General Staff. I have certain information, but I have no right to share it.
According to preliminary information, there is a need to create additional units so these mobilization plans that are brought to the TCC for further mobilization of people can theoretically increase. It is difficult to say how much. I think we can only talk about this after the summer campaign. I call it a summer campaign by conventional tradition. It is now autumn, but it is still an ongoing summer campaign. I think it will last for another month or so.
The General Staff and Commander-in-Chief will then analyze how severe the losses are, how many brigades, and how many formations are needed to reinforce or create an operational reserve. These plans will be adjusted accordingly.
To summarize. The assumption that mobilization plans will increase is quite likely. It will be possible to judge how much these plans will grow and, what specific number of people we are talking about, only in about a month. Although, of course, the plans are adjusted almost every week.
But in any case, the specific number of people will not be publicly reported - this information is sensitive. But the fact that there will be an increase in the percentage of people mobilized to serve in the Defense Forces is, I think, a reasonably likely assumption.
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