NATO leaders promise unity again—but what will this summit really deliver?
Does NATO truly remain unwavering in its support for Ukraine as the alliance prepares to meet in The Hague next week? That question was at the heart of press briefing hosted by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), attended by The New Voice journalist Demian Shevko.
The speakers — CEPA Senior Fellow for the Defense Technology Initiative Jason Israel, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, CEPA Senior Director for Defense Strategy and Policy Lauren Speranza, expert on U.S. foreign and national security policy Deborah McCarthy, CEPA Fellow Jan Techau, and retired Lieutenant General Lance Landrum — laid out the key strategic priorities ahead of the 2025 NATO Summit. Their remarks highlighted fading U.S. backing for Ukraine, growing concern over Russian hybrid threats, and the continued push to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.
Strong U.S. and NATO backing for Ukraine?
As NATO prepares for its2025 The Hague summit, alliance leaders continue to underscore their commitment to Ukraine—though political and strategic rifts remain visible. Speaking at the briefing, Lauren Speranza noted that the original ambitions for the summit have been significantly scaled back. “The scope has really been narrowed,” she said. “I think that's come in response to both a U.S. push to focus more on defense spending, but also a desire from Allied capitals to minimize potential clashes with President Trump.”
Kurt Volker confirmed that this will be “a short and sweet Summit.” According to Volker, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been invited to a social dinner but excluded from the formal NATO meeting. “There is not going to be much said about Ukraine by NATO, at least as I see it,” he said. “There is a fundamental difference: the U.S. does not see Ukrainian security as essential to European security, and our European allies do.”
Volker drew a sharp contrast between American and European strategic perspectives. “They feel that if Putin is allowed to prevail in Ukraine... they are at risk,” he said. “That is a big security threat for Europe and NATO. So they see the need to support Ukraine as integral to our security through NATO. The U.S. simply doesn’t see it that way.”
That strategic gap, he warned, may lead to muted outcomes regarding Ukraine. He also described growing European anxiety about second Trump presidency. “Throughout Europe... there is a very deep and emotional reaction and frustration towards the Trump administration,” he said. “They say they can no longer trust the United States... I don’t buy it. The fundamental interests and values of the U.S. and Europe will keep us stitched together.”
Lance Landrum, former NATO Deputy Chair of the Military Committee, echoed Volker’s assessment of underlying U.S. commitment. “There’s a bit of a difference between the public rhetoric of the administration and what is said behind closed doors,” he said. “It seems that... there’s a level of commitment that is really there from the administration.” Landrum also emphasized the value of NATO’s proposed 5% defense spending target, particularly the “one and a half percent... focused on national infrastructure, the defense industry base, and things that help with national resilience.”
Jan Techau, Senior Fellow at CEPA, described Ukraine’s marginalization in this year’s summit planning. “Ukraine is... almost completely out of this summit,” he said, warning of “tail risks” associated with reduced U.S. aid. “If this support does not continue—perhaps including intel sharing—then the Europeans will also see this as a sign. Not just Zelenskyy will see this as a sign.”
Arctic returns as an old-new priority in NATO’s defense strategy
As NATO recalibrates its posture amid growing global threats, the Arctic is reemerging as a critical strategic frontier, officials said during the CEPA press briefing ahead of the NATO Summit.
Ambassador Deborah McCarthy, an expert on U.S. foreign and national security policy, emphasized that NATO’s focus on the region has intensified with the accession of Finland and Sweden, bringing the number of Arctic-bordering NATO members to seven. “The commitment to the Arctic — though waning and going up and down over the years — the attention is certainly increased,” she said.
McCarthy noted that rising commercial activity, melting ice, and military buildup in the High North are forcing renewed cooperation, even without a formal NATO Arctic strategy. “Even though the United States is pulling back to some extent in terms of Europe, it cannot pull back from being an Arctic nation,” she said, highlighting the need for coordination with Canada and others.
With the Arctic Council sidelined and Russia expanding its presence, NATO is filling the security gap through regional and alliance-level efforts. “It is not one where you can toss the hot potato to one of the seven,” McCarthy said. “There will be increased cooperation among the seven and beyond.”
Lessons from Ukraine drive NATO’s innovation strategy on drones
The Russian war of Ukraine has rapidly accelerated drone warfare, forcing NATO to adapt its innovation priorities and procurement standards, CEPA experts said.
Jason Israel, CEPA expert and former White House official, said Ukraine’s battlefield innovation is a key learning source. “Those incredible fighters… innovating every single day,” he noted. “How quickly software and hardware can be integrated to defeat counter-UAS is one of the most remarkable things to watch right now.”
Israel emphasized NATO’s growing focus on interoperability. “NATO has to be able to catch those lessons learned, but also do it in an interoperable way,” he said. Upcoming events, including a NATO defense industry summit, will spotlight innovation and standard-setting.
General Lance Landrum confirmed that counter-UAS efforts are now embedded in NATO’s capability targets. “Ukraine’s ability to create offensive operations from drone technology is going to be really, really important for the Alliance,” he said.
However, Landrum stressed that individual nations must deliver. “The Alliance itself does not buy weapons,” he said. “The nations have to be motivated by it.”
Defense spending and capabilities
Volker stressed the urgency of turning defense pledges into action. “We have a real threat in Europe. We have to do more,” he said. But he cautioned that some allies are diluting the 5% spending goal. “Some of the messaging is, ‘yeah, 5%, but it’s really 3.5% and 1.5%, and 1.5% can be pretty much anything.’”
Techau warned that Europe’s procurement systems remain sluggish. “Money is not the short-term bottleneck,” he said. “The problem now is procurement bureaucracy and long-term contracts.”
Landrum pointed out that European frameworks like the European Air Transport Command already exist and can be scaled. He also encouraged a shift toward commercial space architecture. “There are small, wealthy nations that can buy this kind of capability,” he said.
McCarthy emphasized that the so-called 1.5%—focused on hybrid and gray-zone threats—must be taken seriously. “This is where the 1.5% will play a major role,” she said.
As NATO leaders prepare to convene in The Hague, the alliance faces a pivotal moment—not only in reaffirming support for Ukraine but also in demonstrating its adaptability in the face of evolving threats. What transpires at the June summit could define NATO’s capacity to deter Russia, counter hybrid warfare, and strengthen resilience across Europe and beyond. If allies deliver on their pledges and translate words into action, this gathering may mark the beginning of a renewed and more robust strategic era.
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