Intimidating Europe is part of Russia's hybrid war — The Atlantic

Andrew Ryvkin, a New York-based journalist who covers Russia’s global influence, wrote about the issue on Sept. 10, in a column for The Atlantic.

The columnist noted that Kremlin propagandists have spent years threatening to nuke European capitals, while Russian diplomats deny that Moscow is preparing for war. At the same time, European intelligence services have linked Russia to hundreds of acts of sabotage, including cyberattacks, arson, and damage to undersea cables.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Russia could attack a NATO member between this fall and 2029. But there is another possibility: Moscow may continue to limit itself to sabotage and intimidation. That hybrid campaign may be sufficient for Russia, and efforts to fuel fears that Moscow could directly attack Ukraine’s European allies are part of it.

“Moscow has not massed troops on any NATO member’s border,” Ryvkin writes.

“Rather, it has been sending a carefully calibrated message meant to persuade Europe to stop supporting Ukraine.”

The article noted that this summer was a season of setbacks for Moscow in Ukraine. Russia made little significant progress on the battlefield and suffered losses from thousands of Ukrainian long-range drones, which contributed to fuel shortages across the country. Moscow therefore increased its activity elsewhere in Europe.

Last month, fires broke out at ammunition factories in Italy, Bulgaria and Estonia. Drones carrying explosives were also discovered near a German power plant and at Leipzig Airport. They were believed to have been intended to destroy Ukrainian cargo aircraft.

“Today, Europe provides the bulk of financial assistance to Kyiv,” Ryvkin continues It has also become Ukraine’s secure production base—Ukrainian weapons are manufactured in Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, France, Romania, and Spain.”

Thus far, Russia’s hybrid warfare has failed to stop the flow of weapons, money and intelligence from Europe to Ukraine.

“But Putin persists in this campaign for a reason,” the piece suggests.

“Through inexpensive means, expendable operatives, and a steady stream of chilling leaks, the Kremlin has millions of Westerners braced for it to wage a full-scale war against Europe. Regardless of whether that war is likely, Putin will be demanding concessions in exchange for bringing it to an end.”