Russian Duma vote to see unprecedented ballot-stuffing — political scientist
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Kremlin views public as obedient biomass to rubber-stamp war — Denysenko (Photo: REUTERS/Ramil Sitdikov)
Russia's State Duma elections will feature unprecedented ballot-box stuffing to serve as a referendum on continuing the war, analyst Vadym Denysenko said on Radio NV on Sept. 18.
Vadym Denysenko
"These elections are fundamentally about endorsing Putin’s policy to prolong the war," Denysenko emphasized.
"Consequently, the authorities must produce a respectable voter turnout figure. Turnout will not be exceptionally high, but it will likely settle around 60%. Meanwhile, the result for United Russia must — as party leadership declared at their penultimate congress — surpass their previous showing."
Denysenko noted that in the 2021 parliamentary campaign, United Russia garnered just over 49% of the official vote. For the current cycle, party functionaries are targeting at least 52% to 54%, with quotas potentially adjusted even higher in the final days of campaigning.
"Everyone understands perfectly well — including inside Russia — that United Russia does not command the authentic popularity required to achieve such numbers," Denysenko stated.
"In my assessment, this will be Russia's first election with falsifications on this massive scale. Historically, ballot-box stuffing in Russia fluctuated between 10% and 15%, which proved sufficient for their purposes. However, roughly 10 days before these elections, official surveys by the Russian Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) placed United Russia's actual support at approximately 30%."
To meet the Kremlin's targeted benchmarks, regional election commissions will need to inject fraudulent ballots equivalent to 22% to 25%, and potentially up to 30% of the total tally, Denysenko assessed.
Prior to the 2024 presidential vote, Putin prioritized the appearance of authentic public affection and popular legitimacy, relying on state political technologists to secure favorable margins with modest padding.
Following the Wagner Group mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023, the Kremlin abandoned its desire for societal affection, pivoting toward control through unvarnished intimidation and fear.
Denysenko concluded that Russian citizens have been stripped of political agency, transformed into an obedient demographic mass compelled strictly to fulfill Putin's perceived historical objectives.
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